Monday, October 12, 2020

Analysis and modelling

Modelling consists of doing the analysis and recording the results in a model of some kind, whereas analysis can be considered to consists of doing the analysis and recording the results in narrative form or picture of some kind.

If the analysis is done soundly it represents 90%+ of the effort of modelling (which just becomes the activity of recording analysis). 

Design is an extended form of analysis where imagination and inventiveness is incorporated. 

The underlying thinking for analysis and design is often best supported by manual (vs computer) techniques e.g. paper, whiteboard, etc. As false precision early in thinking reduces mental plasticity through and runs the risk of cognitive dissonance impairing the quality of analysis (Cf. Rorschach tests, and note Kahneman's observation that "System 1" doesn't present the options it considered or the source data once it has formed a view based on inputs).

Modelling ensures that the analysis/design is done corrected, is recorded, and can be examined and updated. It makes it more obvious when analysis/design is incomplete.

Why then do people have the impression that doing analysis/design and recording in documents is far faster than modelling? It is because they do half baked job of and the method of presentations doesn't make it obvious. Often in fact it encourages partial analysis because the "analyst" has formed conclusions (based on prejudice e.g. what worked last time, what would suit them) and good analysis could undermine these conclusions. 

When analysis is represented narratively, unless the narrator is very skilled and extremely assiduous, the relationships between data is often not recorded explicitly and the chain or sequence of connections cannot be seen or understood. The multiple perspectives a model provides can not be used to assess finding from different angle.

Narrative form may be fine for the analyst, where it usually acts as an aide-mémoire, and the relationships (to the extent they are known) may exist in their heads. It is not OK for the person for whom the analysis is done. It usually requires oral interrogatives to determine a full understanding, and more usually this shows that thinking has not been robust.

As Box said ""All models are wrong, but some are useful". No analysis is perfect, and perhaps none is ever fully complete. What is needed is to ensure that the analysis and models are sufficient to achieve the goal.


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